May 18, 2008 2:10 pm US/Eastern
Study: Global Warming Not Tied To Hurricane Jump
Noted Scientist Reverses Previous Claim
WASHINGTON D.C. (AP) ―
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Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
A noted scientist has changed his stance on the impact global warming on the yearly Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Initially, federal research meteorologist Tom Knutson theorized that global warming was responsible for a recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic. But according to a study released Sunday, Knutson has reversed that position and now thinks warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
In the past, Knutson had issued warnings about the harmful effects of climate change and even complained about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.
But in his new study, based on a computer model, Knutson argues
"against the notion that we've already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming." He predicts by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent.
Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, New Jersey predicts the number of hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and neighboring countries east of Puerto Rico will fall by 30 percent because of wind factors.
According to his computer models, tropical storms packing winds between 39 and 73 mph would decrease by 27-percent but larger, more intense, storms with winds of 110 mph or greater would only decrease by 8 percent. But while the frequency will decrease, Knutson says his models show future hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent.
Not everyone agrees with Knutson's latest work.
While praising him as a scientist, MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel said Knutson's analysis is flawed because it's based on a computer model that doesn't look properly at storms.
Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts June 1st. In a normal year about 10 named storms form; 6 become hurricanes and 2 become major hurricanes.
(© 2010 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)
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