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Aug 13, 2009 7:35 pm US/Eastern
Some Experts Don't Expect H1N1 Outbreak In Fall
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) ―
With the H1N1/swine flu, what should we expect in the coming months?
"We can expect that swine flu will probably be here in the fall, now how serious an infection it will be isn't completely clear," says Dr. Marian Michaels, an infectious diseases specialist at Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh.
An article in the "Journal of the American Medical Association" says a deadly outbreak in the fall isn't necessarily a foregone conclusion.
"I know a number of people have been concerned that it could happen. I think it is true, we always have to be prepared for the worst case scenario, but at this point in time, we have not seen it coming back with complete vengeance," Dr. Michaels continues.
Doctors from the National Institutes of Health looked at 14 major flu pandemics since the beginning of the 16th century. The patterns generally show no autumn spike.
The concern for such an occurrence stems from the 1918 flu. There was a mild spring illness. It got more deadly as the virus mutated over the summer.
"At this point in time, we don't have evidence that that is occurring," Dr. Michaels reassures.
In fact, the CDC has changed its guidelines, because people seem to recover quickly.
"Previously, the CDC was saying you shouldn't go back to work or school until seven days after the onset of your symptoms - at least seven days. Now they're saying it's okay to go back to work or school 24 hours after your fever ends," explains Guillermo Cole, spokesman for the Allegheny County Health Department.
In an effort to prevent a severe outbreak, H1N1 vaccines are in research trials.
"Those trials should be completed fairly soon, within the next few weeks, we believe, and then they'll go into mass production. And the latest information from CDC indicates that the H1N1 vaccine could be available as early as mid-October," Cole continues.
Federal officials have said health care workers, pregnant women and people with underlying health conditions will be the priority once the vaccine is available.
(© MMX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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